Avg method: mean daily spend over the trailing 30 settled days, applied flat to every future day. Per-provider, clipped to start at the provider's first observed day.
Linear method: least-squares line fit on the trailing 30 settled days, projected forward. Disabled (falls back to flat avg) for providers with <21 days of data.
Bars: stacked Spent (actual) + Projected (central). Settled past months are fully grey. The current month shows amber actual-so-far plus a blue projected remainder. Future months are fully projected. Stacked height = avg-method central estimate.
Shaded band: ±30% volume scenario around the avg projection — marketing-driven uncertainty. Black avg line and red linear line mark the two central methods.